Adam Erne’s 2020-21 season is a marvel
The Detroit Red Wings may have been atrocious this year, but there were still a few bright spots to note. One of them was the performance of the front Adam erne, who did a great job and managed to attack.
His performance for the struggling Detroit Red Wings team was pretty impressive. However, that was a little misleading as it looks like he won’t score like that in 2021-22.
In 2019, when General Manager (GM) Steve Yzerman was starting to mix “his guys” in the organization, he made a trade with his old team for Erne. He sent a fourth-round draft pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for the forward.
While Erne’s cap is a slice of less than $ 1 million, according to CapFriendly, he’s nothing more than a fourth-row depth player. The 26-year-old wasn’t much and then in 2020-21 he turned the story around.
Detroit Red Wings forward Adam Erne’s success in 2020-21 was a sure hit.
On his way to his exceptional season, Erne has played 45 of the 56 Red Wings games. He would score 11 goals and add nine assists for 20 points in total. He was third in team points and was the team manager for goals. (These numbers don’t include Anthony Mantha, who also scored 11 goals.)
The fact that Erne led the team in goalscoring is not exactly impressive as it seems. The Red Wings were draws and struggled to score as is. Erne has scored 11 of the 125 goals scored by the Red Wings, which equates to 11.36% of the team’s goals.
Erne gives off some serious San Francisco Giants World Series vibes if you look at his Hockey-Reference page. The Giants were a contender for the World Series every two years in the early 2010s, and looking at Erne’s points total, he likely won’t score much in 2021-22.
But, if he follows suit, he will post another 20-point season in the 2022-2023 season. After his rookie season, his point total is read …
More than Detroit Jock City
- 2017-18: 4 points
- 2018-19: 20 points
- 2019-20: 4 points
- 2020-21: 20 points
The next thing to say is that Erne is really lucky and finds his way to 20 points in those years, where he explodes on the scoresheet.
PDO, a hockey analytic term to begin measuring “luck” in a certain way, speaks volumes about Erne’s abilities. Here’s what his four seasons from above look like in terms of his AOP.
- 2017-18: 98.0
- 2018-19: 104.4
- 2019-20: 93.6
- 2020-21: 102.4
For those who are lost, the scale for the PDO is 100. Being at 100 would be about normal, enough positive luck and enough negative luck to mean that the player’s stats are fairly comparable. However, looking at a number below 100, like 98 for Erne in 2017-18, would mean Erne was out of luck.
The farther away from 100, the worse the player’s luck. As you can imagine, over 100 would mean the player is pretty lucky. I wrote a story about it with Robby Fabbri and some of his successes in the 2020-21 season for those who find AOPs and correlation with stats interesting.
But, with Erne, that makes an interesting correlation, and as with the 2021-22 season, I wouldn’t expect much from anything. He will be a struggling fourth in line and is again pretty much useless for the Red Wings.
The 2020-21 season was a fluke and it’s unlikely to happen again … well, until 2022-23 if the trend continues.