After almost two months of negotiations between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban in Doha paralyzed, the method accelerated final month with an official letter from new US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The letter, dated February 28, 2021, focuses on the UN-led peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban in Turkey, within the presence of the overseas ministers of Pakistan, India, the ‘Iran, China, Russia and the US.

It has been a yr because the historic peace settlement between the US and the Taliban was signed on February 29, 2020. This settlement follows sporadic efforts since 2001, which have intensified since 2018.

The Taliban, the primary rebel group, and the Afghan authorities, with outdoors participation from the US, Pakistan, India, Russia and Iran, purpose to finish the battle by cooperation and dialogue to revive peace in South Asia. Area. Nevertheless, we imagine {that a} dialogue on peace within the area is unlikely to yield outcomes with out critical engagement within the Kashmir disaster, which can be a key to regional stability.

Beneath the settlement, the US pledged to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan inside 14 months, elevate sanctions towards the Taliban management and facilitate the discharge of 5,000 Taliban prisoners. In return, the Taliban agreed that they’d not permit Afghanistan for use towards the US and its allies by terrorist teams and that they’d be a part of an intra-Afghan dialogue and contemplate group representations sooner or later resolution making.

Nevertheless, the intra-Afghan dialogue is stricken by inner divisions between the federal government of the day and several other warring teams, in addition to exterior components that play an important function, as peace in Afghanistan will not be an inner problem however a dilemma. regional. International locations within the area, significantly India, Pakistan and Iran, which all purpose for higher regional dominance, have excessive stakes in altering political dynamics and are seen as key stakeholders within the course of. Afghan peace.

Pakistan, backed by the US and the Worldwide Financial Fund, took pole place within the US-Taliban deal, because it performed a significant function in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating desk and holds the important thing to inner safety and concord in Afghanistan.

Pakistan, which has intermittently linked peace in Afghanistan to the Kashmir problem, expects the US to help the Kashmir problem in return for facilitating the US-led talks in Afghanistan. The present Afghan authorities, nevertheless, has denied any affiliation with the Kashmir problem and believes in optimistic neutrality, believing that India and Pakistan ought to resolve their territorial disputes making an allowance for the rights of the Kashmiris.

India, which has large infrastructural challenges in Afghanistan and treats the nation as a gateway to the Central Asian area, is severely involved about the potential for the Taliban returning to energy. The nation has supplied greater than $ 2 billion in help to Afghanistan, primarily for reconstruction and rehabilitation initiatives, probably the most well-known of which is the Salma Dam, the development of a brand new Afghan parliament constructing, the granting scholarships to Afghan college students and investing within the Iranian port. from Chabahar, which supplies him floor entry to Afghanistan by way of Iran.

The Indian authorities has at occasions indulged in partisan politics in Afghanistan by favoring one particular group or celebration over the opposite. In a latest parliamentary debate, Asaduddin Owaisi, an Indian MP stated that if the Taliban returns to energy, India ought to help the Hazaras and Tajiks, who’re ethnic minority teams, as allies in Afghanistan. This assertion pushes the Pashtuns, the most important ethnic group, to embrace Pakistan.

Earlier Indian governments have pursued insurance policies of conciliation targeted on state-to-state relations, in order that New Delhi may have cordial relations with any regime that seized energy in Kabul. This coverage maintains that the three nations may gain advantage from it if peace and stability are ensured and cooperation strengthened. It additionally referred to Pakistan’s involvement in terrorism in Kashmir. The present authorities has additionally reiterated that it’ll solely help peace talks if they’re “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled”.

Iran, one other essential stakeholder within the Afghan peace course of, has continuously supported pro-Shiite insurance policies in Afghanistan. This was seen throughout negotiations on whether or not the Hanafi or Jafari jurisprudence needs to be applied as a authorized code in Afghanistan. It stays to be seen whether or not Iran’s help for Shiite rights provides to the sectarian loopholes in Afghanistan.

In an interview, Iranian Overseas Minister Jawad Zarif referred to as the Taliban a terrorist group however supported peace talks with them in the identical breath. He additionally wished the Fatimyoon (Afghan migrants for probably the most half Shiites and Hazars in Iran, despatched to battle Daesh in Syria by Iran) to be built-in into the Afghan nationwide military. The Afghan authorities sees it as a transparent intervention in its inner affairs and an try and create a sectarian rupture within the Afghan military.

China can be concerned in Afghanistan, however that is primarily pushed by its financial pursuits and its commerce routes to Central Asia. It additionally needs to import oil from Central Asian states by way of Afghanistan, which can’t be carried out with out peace and quiet within the area. Whereas cautious of the US presence in Afghanistan, Beijing can be involved about rising insurgencies within the area, as Islamist extremism in Afghanistan and the tribal belts of Pakistan, Kashmir and Central Asia may additional feed the separatist tendencies amongst Uyghur Muslims within the northwest. Xinjiang province.

Given these conflicting insurance policies and shifting equations, we imagine that any dialogue on peace within the South Asia area is unlikely to yield outcomes except there may be critical dedication to it. the Kashmir problem and a dialogue on Afghanistan. As India helps the established authorities in Afghanistan which doesn’t have an intransigent coverage on the Kashmir problem, Pakistan is benefiting from the scenario whereas supporting the Taliban forces and sustaining an assertive method in the direction of Kashmir. In such a scenario, conversations about regional peace and stability ought to resonate all through the area. Any resolution that ignores this hyperlink would in the end fail to provide dividends on the bottom.

(Sidiqullah Sahel is Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Kardan College, Afghanistan and Muzamil Yaqoob is a Kashmiri researcher specializing in South Asian politics. The opinions expressed are their very own and don’t essentially replicate these of Outlook Journal)